ACM Market Opinions/Newsletters
Summer of Discontent, Part 2 – August 20, 2010
The optimists are getting desperate, clinging to outlandish data interpretation. Even the Fed is admitting trouble by reopening debt monetization. This piece presents three conclusions from this.
Summer of Discontent – August 6, 2010
The economy is decelerating, but there are questions about the pace of deceleration, and just how fast was the growing. Small business has not experienced much of the recovery, but is sharing in the new contraction.
Are Bonds Showing Recession Signals? – July 29, 2010
The treasury curve is pegged by the Fed at the short end, but the rapid flattening portends something amiss. This is particularly true when viewing short-term interbank lending, and the significant divergence in stocks – bonds are pricing deflation and disaster while stocks are acting like the “V” is still alive.
Connecting the Dots to QE 2.0 – July 22, 2010
The Fed will likely “prepare” the public through several steps: making itself sound harmless and benevolent, defining the failure of its policies through the blame-game, and explaining how and why the Fed is populated by the only people on earth that can save us from ourselves.
Forget Earnings, Focus on the Inventory – July 12, 2010
The Baltic Dry drops by more than 50%, while container shipping rates remain robust. However if we examine wholesale and retail results in the US we can begin to see confirmation of an end to inventory building, and the beginnings of the double dip.
Price Discovery, RIP – May 25, 2010
The more governments interfere, the more uncertainty grows.
Greeced – May 7, 2010
The liquidation began in Europe, but is/can reach far beyond.
Gold – April 13, 2010
Is there a difference in the minds of investors between physical gold (bullion) and paper claims (derivatives and leasing). If there is, then the implications within the realm of gold securities are huge.